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SB Nation’s Bill Connelly recently wrote that one of the biggest strengths for the Colts heading into the playoffs is starting field position.In a follow up piece on Stampede Blue Womens Eric Ebron 2019 Jersey , Brett Mock..."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Colts StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Colts NewsYahoo Colts Team PageYahoo Colts ReportYahoo Colts Depth ChartYahoo Colts TransactionsYahoo Colts PhotosShop About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub 鉁旵olts Strength of Starting Field Position: How Much Does That Matter? New,3commentsESTShareTweetShareShareColts Strength of Starting Field Position: How Much Does That Matter? Geoff Burke-USA TODAY SportsSB Nation’s Bill Connelly recently wrote that one of the biggest strengths for the Colts heading into the playoffs is starting field position.In a follow up piece on Stampede Blue, Brett Mock wrote:Well, when it comes to numbers you only have to ask me once. So, let’s talk about stats, baby. Let’s talk about A plus B. Let’s talk about all the good things and the bad things with Indy. (for you yutes, that is an early 90s reference. . . as is yutes)YARDSFirst of all, let’s establish the numbers.Since I don’t have access to the data that Connelly used, I am going to use my own data which doesn’t exactly match his, but is close enough for government work.I show the 2018 average NFL starting field position for all teams was the 28.5 yard line. For the Colts, on average, the offense started at the 29.7(9th best) and the defense went to work on the 27.6 (10th best). When adding in the number of drives, I can calculate the total yardage advantage thusly: Incremental Field PositionTeamColtsNFLYds +/- AvgDrivesTtl +/-TeamColtsNFLYds +/- AvgDrivesTtl +/-That 375 yards of extra field position is pretty good. In fact Youth Reggie Wayne Jersey , it ranks 5th of all teams. Notice that 8 of the top 10 teams are in the playoffs. Not a coincidence. POINTSQuantifying yardage impact into something tangible like points isn’t straight forward and it leads us into the mystical world of Expected Points. I will let Brian Burke, the creator of EP, explain:Since all drives start as a 1st & 10, this really simplifies the issue for the problem at hand. All I have to do is find the average “next points” for every play that is a 1st and 10. While the curve jumps around a bit, the core signal is linear with a constant slope. This means that a change in yardage of X anywhere on the field has the same relative impact to expected points.For example, The trendline formula gives a slope of 0.0617.So, every incremental 10 yards of field position results in incremental expected points of 10 x 0.0617 = 0.617 no matter where on the field the ball is. This is surprising to a lot of people and is really the answer to Brett’s question (although I’m sure, not in the language he wanted). Field position impacts points in a linear manner.There isn’t a surge (increased slope) or tipping point in expected points as you near the opponent 1 yard line, rather that change happens slowly and evenly as you move down the field. So, armed with this EP knowledge, I can extend the original table like this:Incremental Field PositionTeamColtsNFLYds +/- AvgDrivesTtl +/-EP per YardTotal EPTeamColtsNFLYds +/- AvgDrivesTtl +/-EP per YardTotal EPTa-da!The impact of better field position is 13.4 more offensive points and 9.7 fewer opponent points over the season or almost 1.5 net points per game.Too bad that can’t be converted into wins . . . Oh wait! I can do that too!WINSPythagorean Expected Wins uses a team’s season total points for and against to determine how many games they were expected to win.Pythagorean Expected Season Wins = 16 * (Points For ^ 2.53) / (Points For ^ 2.53 + Points Against ^ 2.53)For 2018, the Colts scored 433 points and gave up 344, so their Pythagorean wins was 16 * (433 ^ 2.53) / (433 ^ 2.53 + 344^ 2.53) = 10.3 gamesHowever Reggie Wayne Jersey Stitched , if our field position were just average, then the offense would have been expected to score 13.4 fewer and the defense would have been expected to give up 9.7 more and the revised formula would have been: 16 * (419.6 ^ 2.53) / (419.6 ^ 2.53 + 353.7 ^ 2.53) = 9.7 gamesSo, the difference between the Colt’s consistently good field position and NFL average is estimated to be the difference between 10.3 and 9.7 wins. That 0.6 expected wins might have been the difference between playoffs on the road or playoffs on the couch. INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — The Indianapolis Colts‘ offensive line will return intact next season — albeit with a new coach.Right guard Mark Glowinski signed a three-year contract extension worth $18 million Tuesday, assuring the Colts of having all five starters back. Center Ryan Kelly just finished his third season and is still on his rookie contract.Left guard Quenton Nelson and right tackle Braden Smith were selected by the Colts in the 2018 draft and longtime left tackle Anthony Castonzo will be entering the final year of his four-year contract this fall.Together, they allowed a league-low 18 sacks and paved the way for Marlon Mack to top the 100-yard mark four times during the regular season — the most by an Indy runner since Joseph Addai in 2007.“I think just even having a little bit more cohesion that we have is going to be crucial,” Glowinski said in a statement issued by the team.“We did a great job of just making sure that we were pushing through and (making) each other accountable even regardless of who they are and all that kind of stuff. Honestly, with the group that we have we can take it even to another level. I feel like we are just getting started.”There will be a couple of other new faces in the locker room, though.The Colts also announced Tuesday they have hired Chris Strausser as the new offensive line coach and Jason Michael as the tight ends coach.Strausser replaces Dave DeGuglielmo, who was fired Jan. 15. Assistant offensive line coach Bobby Johnson, whose previous experience included working with the tight ends, left to take a position with the Buffalo Bills. Tight ends coach Tom Manning left Jan. 18 and returned to Iowa State where he will serve as offensive coordinator.Under Manning, the Colts had the most productive tight end group in the NFL and Eric Ebron made his first Pro Bowl after catching the most touchdown passes in the league by a tight end, 13.Strausser is a 30-year coaching veteran who spent the past two seasons working with Denver’s offensive line. He worked the previous 28 years in college Youth Donte Moncrief Jersey , making stops at Washington, Boise State, Colorado, Portland State, Foothill College, San Jose State, Sonoma State, Oregon State and Menlo College.Michael worked as the Arizona Cardinals tight end coach last season after spending four years on the Tennessee Titans’ staff. He’s also worked with the Chargers, 49ers, Jets and Raiders as well as two stints at the University of Tennessee.But general manager Chris Ballard’s bigger priority was keeping the offensive line together.Glowinski moved into the starting lineup in early October after Matt Slauson went down with a season-ending back injury. Glowinski appeared in 11 games, starting nine.He spent his first three seasons with Seattle before Indy claimed Glowinski off waivers in December 2017.The moves come one day after kicker Adam Vinatieri re-signed with the Colts for one year.
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